How Trump’s ‘Reciprocal’ Tariffs work and what they mean for Global Trade...

UAE News:

UAE and Tunisia launched Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) negotiations. Bilateral non-oil trade between the two countries had grown by 7.7% YoY to USD 350mn in 2024. About 26 CEPAs have been concluded, and many have been ratified and are in force.

UAE committed to a USD 1.4trn investment in the US over the next decade: though many details were not provided, one of the deals is a new aluminum smelter in the US by Emirates Global Aluminum that “would nearly double U.S. domestic aluminum production”.

Businesses registered in Dubai’s free zones (other than in the DIFC) will be allowed to expand into the mainland areas, according to new legislation, after acquiring licenses or permits from the Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism. The firms will have to maintain separate financial records for freezone-based and mainland operations.

Dubai’s Real Estate Tokenisation Project, which enables the tokenisation of property title deeds, will allow for fractional ownership. Tokenisation essentially enables the creation and trading of digital tokens on a blockchain (in this case backed by a piece of real estate). Dubai Land Department forecasts that the tokenised real estate market could reach around AED 60bn (USD 16bn) by 2033 (or roughly 7% of all transactions).

Imports of physical gold to UAE from Switzerland surged by 80% MoM to 3,465kg in February, according to Swiss customs data. This underscores Dubai’s role as a major gold trading hub, in addition to the appetite for gold as a safe haven asset amid increased economic uncertainty.

MENA News:

Suez Canal revenues’ monthly losses amounted to around USD 800mn, revealed Egypt’s President.

Iraq plans to raise oil production capacity to over 6mn barrels per day (BPD) by 2029, from about 4mn BPD currently, through oil exploration and nationwide drilling activity, according to the Oil Ministry.

Kuwait approved the new Public Debt Law, officially known as the Financing and Liquidity Law, allowing the country to access international debt markets. The law grants the government the authority to issue up to KWD 30bn in sovereign bonds and Islamic Sukuk over a 50-year period. This will allow Kuwait to return to international debt markets after 8 years, at a time when dollar issuance by Kuwaiti issuers has surged (to USD 13.6bn in 2024 from USD 60mn in 2023, driven mainly by banks).

Annual passenger capacity has been expanded to 65mn passengers in Qatar’s Hamad International Airport. According to the Government Communications Office, the terminal area expanded by 14% (to 845,000sqm) and 17 new boarding gates were added (to a total 62). The country received over 5mn visitors last year, up 25% YoY.

An EU-led conference last week saw donors pledge EUR 5.8bn (USD 6.3bn) to support Syria’s economic recovery. This was lower than the previous year’s EUR 7.5bn in grants and loans, with US aid cuts cited as a major factor.

Saudi Arabia’s Capital Market Authority has approved five more IPOs: Dar Al Majed Real Estate Company (will offer 30% of its shares & list on Tadawul), Hamad Mohammed Bin Saedan Real Estate Company (will float 15% on Nomu), Islamic education provider Dome International Investment Company (14.5% on Nomu), the National Signage Industrial Company (can float 20% on Nomu) and gym operator Sport Clubs Company (30% shares on Tadawul).

Saudi industry and mineral resources ministry awarded mining exploration licenses to multiple local and international firms (including Indian miner Vedanta, a consortium of Artar, Gold and Minerals Ltd Co., and Australian firm Hancock Prospecting owned Jacaranda and another consortium of Ajlan & Bros Mining and Chinese mining firm Zijin Mining among others) covering a total area of 4,788 square kilometres; the firms are estimated to spend around SAR 366mn on exploration over three years.

Point of sale activity in Saudi Arabia increased in the week ended on March 15th, with food and beverages, miscellaneous goods & services, and clothing & footwear together accounting for 37.4% of total spending during the week. Jewellery posted the largest uptick in transaction value (31.1%), followed by clothing & footwear (22.8%) while the steepest decline was seen in education (-29.9%).

Riyadh introduced 20 new investment opportunities for 2025 (including mixed-use developments) to encourage private sector participation in urban development; these cover more than 175,000 sqm across over 20 sites.

Global News:

Trump argues that decades of “unfair” trade practices have hollowed out American manufacturing, undermined critical supply chains, and rendered U.S. defence industries dependent on foreign adversaries.

Equities markets posted marginal weekly gains as investors took comfort from a statement that President Trump would be flexible about the new round of tariffs in April. World stocks SANs US (MSCI International ACWI ex USA) are on course to post the best Q1 performance since 2019. Regional markets were mixed on increased regional tensions and the Fed keeping interest rates steady (most GCC currencies are pegged to the dollar). The euro posted a weekly loss versus the dollar, down by 0.6% and the GDP also ended lower after BoE warned not to assume more cuts were on the cards. Oil prices rose for the second week in a row amid heightened US sanctions on Iran and ahead of OPEC+ new plan for seven of its members to cut oil output to compensate for over-production. Gold prices remained above the USD 3k per ounce mark but came off the record-high of USD 3,057.21 on profit-taking.

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SOURCE:
Nasser Saidi & Associates

Arabian Business