The Second Chokepoint...

The other exit narrows. Houthi forces took the Red Sea port of Mocha on 10 September, moving closer to Bab el-Mandeb. Hormuz remains blocked, with war-risk insurance adding close to $8 a barrel. UAE east-coast ports still bypass Hormuz, but Europe-bound cargo via Suez has to pass Bab el-Mandeb, and ING warns Saudi Red Sea crude exports are increasingly at risk. The rerouting trade assumed one coast stayed clean. That assumption is now being tested.

Oil is back in three figures. Brent was around $105 on Thursday, against an EIA forecast of about $90 for the second half. The market is running $15 above the official view. UAE diesel rose 13% to AED 4.30 a litre on 1 September, and that was set before Brent went back through $100.

Growth, with a caveat. The UAE non-oil PMI jumped to 55.3 in August, the fastest expansion since late 2024, with export orders growing at a 21-month high. The detail is less clean. Inventory built at the sharpest rate since November 2023 while employment contracted. That reads like buying ahead of disruption, not hiring for demand. Saudi Arabia rose to 53.8. Qatar stayed in contraction at 47.6.

The Riyadh corridor is getting expensive. Saudi–UAE transfers that once cleared in hours now take three to ten business days, some returned without clear error codes. Firms are opening entities on both sides and swapping open accounts for letters of credit. Every workaround costs margin. SAMA maintains there are no country-specific restrictions. Washington, meanwhile, expects to keep adding Iran-linked sanctions on a rolling basis.

Sovereign capital is picking its spots. The UAE committed €40bn ($46.5bn) to Germany during Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed's first state visit, including about 1GW of data centres and 29 company deals worth over €9.35bn (Middle East Online). PIF went the other way on open-ended bets. LIV Golf filed for Chapter 11 after more than $5bn of PIF money, while the fund weighs folding EA into Savvy Games, with no decision yet.

Flights return, later than billed. Lufthansa Group comes back to Dubai from late October with up to 36 flights a week at peak, a restart originally due in early September. Dubai Airports expects around 70 million passengers this year, roughly a quarter below 95.2 million in 2025. The winter schedule, not demand, still sets Q4.

Rear-view numbers, forward bets. GCC tourism contributed around $254bn in 2025, or 11.4% of GDP, a pre-war figure, and ministers are now working on a joint recovery plan. Retail is still committing floor space: Primark opens its first Saudi store in Riyadh in March 2027.

Where that leaves you. Budget freight and fuel at $100-plus Brent, not $90, and note that October pump prices are set at month-end. Move Saudi receivables toward letters of credit or pre-payment and build ten working days of slack into that cash cycle. Re-screen counterparties monthly. Plan Q4 hospitality around confirmed schedules, not announcements.

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Sources: Al Jazeera, Nasset Saidi & Associates, CNBC, Fortune, EIA, Gulf News, Arabian Gulf Business Insight, PYMNTS, TNW, Travel Tomorrow, Zawya, Middle East Online, ESPN, Time Out, The National, Asharq Al-Awsat