Cheaper Rents, Longer Routes...

The road to Riyadh got longer. King Khalid International Airport remains closed until at least 17 October; Etihad has cancelled Abu Dhabi-Riyadh flights until 19 October and Qatar Airways has suspended Riyadh and Dammam flights. About 40% of Saudi flights were cancelled between 8 and 14 October. Oil shipments via the Gulf of Oman and Red Sea reached 6.7m bpd, more than double pre-war, even as Hormuz tanker attacks hit their highest weekly rate of the war. Brent sat near $105 on 14 October. The World Bank sees the GCC contracting 4.3% this year and growing 10.3% in 2027 and the IMF's baseline has Hormuz reopening from March 2027. Saidi's planning assumption is prolonged risk premia across shipping, aviation, insurance and trade finance.

Tenants have leverage. Dubai apartment rental rates fell in nine of ten tracked districts in Q3, Downtown by about 22%. Average daily apartment listings on Property Finder rose 55.1% in September while tenant enquiries rose 15.4%. Signed rents are moving too. Savills has Marina, Business Bay and JVC down 10-13% year on year, with new leases at 44% of contracts, up from 36%. Sales are weaker: 34,500 transactions, down 38% year on year.

Where the next buyers come from. BCG puts UAE net wealth at $3.6tn in 2025, heading to $6tn by 2030, with people worth over $100m rising from about 500 to 800. It expects a rebound later in the decade, supported partly by family-business liquidity events. That means owners selling.

Retail is rebalancing, not dying. Visa finds online and in-app payments are 55% of UAE domestic payment volume, up from 35% in 2019, and the share of cards active on food delivery apps has gone from about 2% to nearly 30% since 2018. Yet Ibn Battuta Mall has 38 new and upcoming openings, 21 already trading, with about 1.5m visits a month. Both channels are being rebuilt.

Rules and roads. IFC Oman will start company registrations this year and full licensing in 2027. Saudi Arabia's 60-day window for Yemeni workers with expired permits, which opened on 11 October, waives overdue work-permit fees on transfers to new employers. In Abu Dhabi, 13km of Mussafah roads will get a three-lane-each-way highway and two bridges to Mohamed Bin Zayed City, which helps industrial and logistics tenants.

Where that leaves you. Use the listing data to renegotiate office, retail and staff-housing rents. If a deal touches Saudi, price in the travel and insurance friction. Check digital sales share before valuing a retailer. If you hire in Saudi, the transfer window runs to early December.

About Business Exchange Bureau:
Business Exchange Bureau (BXB) is a Professional Marketplace for Business Owners to Buy and Sell Businesses, Investments or Business Assets in the UAE.
The BXB vision is clear - to connect great business minds to great investments.

Sources: ZAWYA, Gulf News, Greek City Times, Khaleej Times, Nasser Saidi & Associates, Enterprise AM, The Week, Erem Business, Gulf News, Oman Observer